LaurierâSainte-Marie is densely-populated, highly-educated and has the second-most renters and constituents employed in the arts and entertainment industry of any riding in the country. Hehr was given a seat at the cabinet table; he later lost it over allegations of sexual harassment, but he remains one of the Liberalsâ best fundraisers and will put up a stiff fight against the Conservativesâ Greg McLean. • CBC News Spent some time here over the weekend. Liberal MP Wayne Long has not always followed the party line: he voted for an inquiry into the SNC-Lavalin affair and against the partyâs small-business tax measures â something that could help him in a province where the Liberal brand has taken a beating. Sheâll be facing off against former Liberal candidate and leadership hopeful David Bertschi, who will be carrying the Conservative banner this time. With more seats than most provinces, the Greater Toronto Area decides elections. Itâs just one of the many suburban Greater Vancouver ridings the Conservatives need to win if they are to form a government; the party is hoping to take it back with a re-match between Hogg and former cabinet minister Kerry-Lynne Findlay. With a significant francophone population, OrlÃ©ans was long a Liberal stronghold: the party lost it only twice throughout the 20th century. Even if the Liberals fall to Igantieff levels of voter support (18%), Toronto-Centre will still be one of the 3-5 seats they win. The Liberals won in 2015 thanks to their support in the Lower Mainland portion of the riding, but they took few polls in the Interior portion. Closed Captioning and Described Video is available for many CBC-TV shows offered on CBC Gem. Green Leader Andrew Weaverâs seat is within the federal boundaries of Victoria, and with the NDPâs Murray Rankin not running again, the seat is ripe for the picking for the Greens â if they can make good on their uptick in the polls. The Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois won a majority of the provinceâs federal seats in 2008; the New Democrats took most of them in 2011 before being pushed to one side by the Liberals in 2015. The Liberals havenât won in KamloopsâThompsonâCariboo since 1974, but they believe they can win in 2019 thanks to Terry Lake, a former provincial cabinet minister and MLA for the riding from 2009 to 2017. One Liberal cabinet minister who could be sunk by the purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline is Jonathan Wilkinson, who held the fisheries and oceans portofolio. The party is hoping to regain some of the seats it lost in the region four years ago, but it is facing an uphill climb. There are some opportunities for the Conservatives on the East Coast, particularly where some high-profile Liberal incumbents have retired. The New Democrats won the seat with just 28.7 per cent of the vote in 2015 and the Liberals do not need much of a boost to take it for the first time since 1980. The riding has swung between the Liberals, New Democrats and Conservatives for quite some time, but one constant has been Liberal incumbent Sukh Dhaliwal: win or lose (he lost twice), he has carried the partyâs banner here in every election since 2004. B.C. There are 338 federal ridings in Canada and voters will be going to the polls in each on Oct. 21, 2019. Voters in Quebec have been fickle in recent years. This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 26, 2020. These are the big questions that will be answered on Oct. 21 when voters cast their ballots in Canadaâs 338 ridings â and how these 60 ridings swing will tell the story of this campaign. Marco Mendocino won a closely-fought race against former finance minister Joe Oliver in 2015, returning EglintonâLawrence to its Liberal roots. The Liberals are hoping to offset losses on the coast with gains in the B.C. More importantly, a 40% gap is simply extraordinary to overcome (not that it can't be done -- ask Jack Harris). If they pull off a win here, the Liberals are probably on course to stay in power â and the Conservatives are likely heading back to the opposition benches. The Conservatives narrowed the margin in a 2017 byelection and if they do it again on Oct. 21, they could flip the seat, too. A road classification system designates streets into different groups or classes according to the type of service each group is intended to provide. Even when the Liberals were at a historic low in 2011, they still won Guelph by a double-digit margin. Considering its history, this riding â which has voted blue at the provincial level in every election since 1923 â should be high on the list of Conservative pick-ups. If she does not survive, however, the future of the NDP in the province will be even grimmer than it already appears. The party is hopeful it can win some of them back. At the very least, it will complicate the electoral dynamics in this seat, which elected a Liberal in 2015 but went Conservative in both the 2008 and 2011 elections. While election day is officially on Oct. Former MPP George Smitherman, who left provincial politics to join the race to become Toronto's next mayor, held the riding for 10 years. Depending on how the vote splits, any one of the other three parties could come out on top â a situation that could repeat itself in other parts of Quebec. Patrick, Fort York, when ridings were redistributed to match their federal counterparts. But if the Greens are casting about more widely, they should look to ridings where their provincial cousins have had success. A riding that splits between the Manitoba PCs and New Democrats at the provincial level, this is a key target for the Conservatives in suburban Winnipeg. Located in a traditional swing region of the country, AuroraâOak RidgesâRichmond Hill was won by the Liberals by just 2.1 percentage points in 2015 after the three ridings that existed before were swept by the Conservatives in 2011. The Liberals pulled off a surprise when they won four seats in Alberta in 2015, but the downturn in the oil industry has hit the partyâs fortunes in the province hard. Hamilton is usually friendly territory for New Democrats. The Greater Toronto Area is key to the Conservativesâ election hopes. Judy Klassen, who scored an upset for the Manitoba Liberals in the 2016 provincial election here, will be carrying the federal partyâs banner this time. The riding has been held by the Liberals without interruption since 1988. Voter turnout was higher than average for byelections: 25.6 per cent in York Centre and 30.9 per cent in Toronto Centre. The NDPâs return to Newfoundland and Labrador depends on Jack Harris, who won St. Johnâs East for the party in 2008 and 2011. Support for the Green Party is strongest on Vancouver Island and thatâs where it has its best hopes for gains. I think this was incorrectly called. After Brampton East, SurreyâNewton has the most South Asians and Indian immigrants of any riding in the country. This is Annamie Paul’s message to all residents of Toronto Centre, as … Western Canada also is going to be tough going for the Liberals. Richmond Hill has the second-most Farsi-speakers of any riding in the country; it elected Iranian-born Majid Jowhari of the Liberals in 2015. All of the ridings are currently held by the Liberals, which could prove damaging to the party if any of them turn blue. ... although the riding has been a Liberal stronghold since 1997. Annamie Paul placed second in the Oct. 26 byelection in the Toronto Centre riding, but increased the Green share of the vote by 26 points over last year's general election. The Conservatives canât be ruled out, either: if Robinson and the Liberalsâ Terry Beech split the vote, the Conservatives could win with only a minor improvement over their 2015 performance. Photo by Chris Young/The Canadian Press … Davenport, a densely-populated riding where nearly half of commuters take public transit to work, is a key target for the NDP in downtown Toronto, where the party was shut out in 2015. A manufacturing centre won by the Ontario Tories in six of the last seven provincial elections, Cambridge is the sort of riding the Conservatives need to win back if theyâre going to form government. Interior, where the pipeline issue plays differently than it does in the rest of the province. The Conservatives will be hard-pressed to win most of the seats FranÃ§ois Legaultâs party captured a year ago, but they could paint some parts of the province Tory blue for the first time since the 1980s. A close race last time, it will not take much for the Conservatives to win this seat again â the kind of seat they absolutely must win if they are to form a majority government, as Doug Fordâs PCs did in 2018. With Glen Murray not running here anymore, coupled with the fact that Liberals are not polling so great, this one could go NDP. Itâs where NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was twice elected to the Ontario legislature, and where his brother Gurratan won for the NDP in the 2018 provincial election. The Ford family name will be on the ballot, but it will belong to Renata Ford, widow of former Toronto mayor Rob Ford, who is running for the Peopleâs Party. But the Conservativesâ victory here in 2011 and the Ontario PCsâ win in 2018 suggest the riding could swing again. While the New Democrats have had some individual wins in the region â they won a portion of this riding in 2011 and the provincial NDP holds the area â this is another riding that the party is hoping it can win thanks in part to Jagmeet Singhâs appeal. Balancing the environment and the economy has always been complicated for the Liberals â and never more so than when Justin Trudeauâs government bought the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project. Charlottetown might offer their best odds, even if the riding has elected a Liberal MP in every election since 1988 and the Greens took just 5.8 per cent of ballots cast there in 2015. The Liberals won it back in 2015 with Andrew Leslie, but the retired lieutenant-general is not running for re-election. But while Scheer would like to repeat the success of âFord Nationâ, he might face an obstacle in Ford himself. The Liberals have won 15 of the last 19 votes held here, but the margins were close in 2015 â and Fordâs PCs captured a majority of ballots cast in Richmond Hill last year. Voters in ElmwoodâTranscona like to keep things close. Quebec was key to the NDPâs rise to Official Opposition status in the 2011 election. The last time a party won the seat over two consecutive elections was in 1997. Davenport, a densely-populated riding where nearly half of commuters take public transit to work, is a key target for the NDP in downtown Toronto, where the party was shut out in 2015. The federal Greens are hoping to repeat some of that success on the Island in October, but itâs hard to find a riding where the Greens have a real shot. 2019 Federal Campaign Polls Date : Polling firm Method Sample : LPC CPC NDP GPC BQ PPC: Leader 2019-10-20 Nanos TEL 800 32 33 21 6 7 2 Con +1 2019-10-20 Mainstreet IVR 2032 32 32 18 6 8 3 Égalité/Tie 2019-10-19 EKOS IVR 1994 34 30 18 8 5 4 Lib +4 2019-10-19 Research Co. INT 957 32 31 19 8 7 2 Lib +1 2019-10-19 Ipsos But it has been a bellwether since 1993, voting with the party that has formed government ever since. Many NDP signs across the riding combined with a non-existent PC campaign (their campaign office was in darkness at 7pm on a Monday night) that it only makes sense to switch this riding from Liberal to at least TCTC. This web site is the creation of P.J. That helped the NDP win in a close three-way race in ReginaâLewvan, but the seat could be up for grabs now after the party booted Erin Weir from caucus for allegedly inappropriate behaviour. The New Democrats are a long way from their historic breakthrough in the 2011 federal election under Jack Layton. It has been one of the safest Liberal seats in recent years; Kirsty Duncan won it by a margin of 39 percentage points in 2015. Outside of Quebec, where its support has collapsed, the NDP could be pushed out of some of its traditional strongholds in this fallâs election. This is an easy NDP gain. Rosedale is out of the riding, there is no incumbent and the Liberals are out of the game province-wide. Burlington had gone Conservative in the three previous elections and, with the sole exception of the 2014 vote, has elected the Ontario PCs in every election since 1943 at the provincial level. The Conservativesâ odds are slim, but the CAQ has its only presence on the island of Montreal here. Read about the 60 ridings in the six themes below. The Liberals took most of them back in 2015, but if Andrew Scheer is to replicate Harperâs success he needs to win seats like Kitchener SouthâHespeler. (Chris Young / … That might give the federal Greens the base they need to win Fredericton. I do expect the Liberals to eke out 1 or 2 seats in the 416, but this will not be one of them. The Conservativesâ support in the riding dropped only marginally last time and the Liberals do not have an incumbent. 2014 Election Result:Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton, Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
The New Democrats in Regina and Saskatoon were hamstrung for years by rural-urban ridings that combined parts of the cities with wide sections of conservative-voting rural areas, but that changed in 2015 when the two cities got urban ridings of their own. But the NDPâs Robert Aubin only held on to his seat by less than a thousand votes in 2015, when the Liberals finished a close second. If voters in Guelph are getting in the habit of voting Green â if Schreinerâs win wasnât specific to the context of that provincial election â then Green candidate Steven Dyck might have a shot here. The old downtown City of Toronto ridings will be a wash of orange to prevent the provincial risk of a blue majority. We are also sticking by Jane Philpott in her riding on a personal vote, though independent bids are quite difficult. The New Democrats have had more success in downtown Toronto in the past, though they lost all of their seats in the city in the last election. The federal Conservatives, who havenât won here since 1984, want to do the same. Since 1957, the riding anchored by the city of Peterborough has voted with the party that formed government in 19 of 20 general elections â making PeterboroughâKawartha the quintessential bellwether riding and an obvious target for the Conservatives. If the Liberals can attract that NDP vote, they could leapfrog the Conservatives into first place. The contest is largely between the NDP and the Conservatives in Essex, but the resonance of the NDPâs criticisms of the Liberal governmentâs approach to free trade will be tested. The Liberals more than quintupled their share of the vote in KildonanâSt. The Liberals swept all of Torontoâs seats in the last election, but both Stephen Harper in 2011 and Doug Ford in 2018 were able to win in places like Etobicoke and Scarborough. But Guelph has been one of the best ridings in the country for the Greens in recent years and the Ontario provincial wing of the party capitalized on that base in the 2018 election, sending their leader Mike Schreiner to Queenâs Park. Voters in two Toronto ridings head to the polls today in the first electoral test of the federal Liberal government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Greens made history in April when they formed the partyâs first Official Opposition anywhere in Canada. Find out what you need to know about your local riding. Without an incumbent, and with a portion of the local party apparatus having backed Weir throughout the dispute, the New Democrats look hobbled â which presents an opportunity to the Conservatives. The Liberals also will be looking to pick up a seat the Bloc managed to win with less than one-in-three votes in 2015. On that day, every Toronto Centre voter gets to choose who will be their representative. The federal party won Hamilton EastâStoney Creek in 2006, 2008 and 2011, before former Hamilton mayor Bob Bratina took it for the Liberals in 2015. Liberal MPP Brad Duguid, who has held the riding since 2003, has long been rumoured to be preparing for a run at the Toronto mayor’s job. News Mainstreet Research polls suggest big Liberal lead in Scarborough Centre, close race in NS riding This is another riding the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will traverse, but the seat straddles the line between the B.C. That puts the seat high on the target list for the Liberals, Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois and Conservatives. Instead, it has opted for nationalist candidates in nine of the last 10 elections â Brian Mulroneyâs PCs in the 1980s and the Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois in every election since 1993, with the single exception of 2011, when the riding was swept up in the NDPâs orange wave. King-Vaughan The King-Vaughan riding was flipped […] Wynne's concession was a huge mistake for a riding like this, where I think many low-information voters didn't realize just how bad the Liberals were polling. The NDP has fewer incumbents running for re-election than other parties, putting those seats at risk. I have been a generally liberal voter for the last 20 years, but this time around, they are imploding and those of us who lived through the Toronto Ford mayoral years will do anything to prevent a Ford at the provincial level. And which party is best positioned to take the most advantage of the NDPâs struggles? The New Democrats are hoping they will not end up on the bottom of that pile, particularly in ridings where they lack incumbents. Centre Toronto riding was first created in 1872 from portions of West Toronto and East Toronto.In 1903, the name was changed to Toronto Centre. 23/05/2018: Joe 184.108.40.206: Smallest urban riding with so many condo-dwellers, polling shows NDP flying in the old city and Toronto Centre should soon go orange too. But in the six provincial districts that make up the federal riding, the P.E.I. It was a big breakthrough for the Liberals when they won Lac-Saint-Jean from the Conservatives in a 2017 byelection, as this was the riding where the party put up its worst result in the country east of Saskatchewan in the 2015 federal election. In such extraordinary times, we need someone who will fight to improve the lives of every person in this riding. If the Liberals can secure the progressive vote in the riding, they should be able to hold off the Conservativesâ James Cumming in his second run against Boissonnault. It is a priority for CBC to create a website that is accessible to all Canadians including people with visual, hearing, motor and cognitive challenges. The purchase of the pipeline might not have changed the minds of those inclined to distrust the Liberalsâ approach to the energy file. How the New Democrats do in this election wonât matter solely to the NDP itself. It is the province in which its support in the polls has held up the most and it is the only place in which the New Democrats form the provincial government. While TC be one of the last Liberal holdouts, it will be interesting to see how the NDP does here. If the Liberals are banking on holding any seats in Alberta, Edmonton Centre should be right at the top of the list. I've lived in Church and Wellesley before, and despite this riding having a very active NDP and some areas where the party does quite well, I expect this to hold as Liberal. Brison made this a safe Liberal seat, one of the few that survived the cull of the 2011 federal election. Campaign Research poll of Toronto has Liberals up 11 on the NDP in Toronto Centre ... the only other seat after St. Paul's where they can be considered a favourite. At the provincial level, Quebecâs last three governments have been run by three different parties. After being dominated by the Progressive Conservatives for years, the riding was held by New Democrats from 1964 until 1979, when it voted for the PCs for four terms. The Liberalsâ David Merner finished second with 27.4 per cent, but he will be carrying the Green Party banner this time and has an opportunity to build on his new partyâs score of 19.9 per cent from 2015. One factor that could complicate the Conservativesâ chances of winning the seat again is Maxime Bernierâs Peopleâs Party â every vote his candidate captures improves the odds that the Liberalsâ JoÃ«l Lightbound will break the anti-incumbent trend in Louis-HÃ©bert. Ward 13 Councillor Office. Fournier, astronomy and physics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal. Normally, Etobicoke North wouldnât be a riding to watch. Paul between 2011 and 2015, winning a seat that had been held by the Conservatives since 2004. She might be helped by the mixed election results in the riding over the last two elections. They won by a narrow margin over the second-place Conservatives - just 2.3 percentage points - which suggests Liberal MP Jati Sidhu is in for a difficult fight. Brison wasnât a Liberal candidate in 1997 and 2000 either, when he won the riding as a Progressive Conservative. Lisa Raitt was one of the Conservative MPs in the GTA who withstood the Liberal surge, winning by a margin of five points in 2015. Box 500 Station A Toronto, ON Canada, M5W 1E6. One of the richest and fastest-growing ridings in the country, KingâVaughan was regained by the Liberals in 2015 after the Conservatives won both of the previous ridings in 2011 that now make up the seat. In 2015, he beat the Conservatives by 63 points. But the seat was captured provincially by the Ford PCs in 2018 by a narrow margin and the ridingâs profile makes it one that likely would end up in the Conservative camp if they win a majority government â as was the case in 2011. The Liberals captured York Centre in 2015 by a narrow 2.9-point margin, taking it back from the Conservatives. Toet defeated the NDPâs Jim Maloway by 300 votes in 2011. That would make this an NDP gain and sweep of the downtown region. Two-thirds of the population in Brampton East is South Asian, according to the 2016 census. But the Conservatives captured just 6.5 per cent of the vote here in 2015, suggesting the contest will again be a two-horse race between Whalen and Harris. I'm calling this one for the NDP even though this should be a safe liberal riding - for a few reasons: Toronto Centre is one of the safest Liberal seats, no matter how they are doing overall. It was close last time: MaryAnn Mihychuk beat the Conservative candidate by less than three percentage points. The by-election in York Centre is as a result of the resignation of Michael Levitt, a Liberal first elected in 2015. The CBC poll tracker now has the Liberals on 0 seats in Toronto since the NDP have taken first in the polls. Marci Ien, the Liberal Candidate for the Toronto Centre riding, is pictured on Thursday October 22, 2020. Liberals also look like their holding out for a star. Interior, where the Liberals are playing both offense and defense. Advance polls are now open in York Centre and Toronto Centre with a extra safety measures in place. Greens won the most votes just a few months ago â so it isnât outlandish to think the federal Greens could do the same. Had it gone ahead, the Energy East pipeline would have supplied the Irving refineries in Saint John and the federal government has been blamed in part for the cancellation of this project. You can also do this method if you don't feel safe going out to polling stations. Speaking to iPolitics on Tuesday, Bernier wasn’t sure if he would run in Toronto Centre or York Centre, both ridings left empty by the resignations of two Liberal MPs. Pipeline access is an important issue for oil industry workers in Alberta, for Atlantic Canadians who pay high gas prices and for British Columbians who worry about their vulnerable coastline. David Morris should be able to hold onto this -- barely. Beauce does have a quirky political history, being one of the few francophone parts of Quebec to have never supported the Bloc QuÃ©bÃ©cois â and having elected Bernierâs father Gilles when he stood as an Independent in 1993, after he had won it twice for the PCs in the 1980s. It was created in 1999 as Toronto Centre—Rosedale from most of St. George—St. And even where the NDP does have incumbents, the party canât take anything for granted. That victory marked the first time the Liberals had won in Kelowna since 1968 â the last time the Liberals were mounting their first campaign under a leader named Trudeau. The judgment of those voters on the governmentâs approach to reconciliation likely will decide this fall whether the Liberals are able to take a seat theyâve only won twice over the last 65 years. It is hard to imagine a Conservative majority government without an MP from Burlington. Of the 2020 Canadian federal by-elections, this is the more competitive, but will it be competitive? The Liberals won The 6ix by 26 points last election, and would have swept up 23 of 25 seats if the 2018 boundaries had been in use. July 15, 2019 Ontario Predictions Update ON predicted seat totals: Lib 70, CPC 41, NDP 9, Ind 1. She is one of the Liberal cabinet ministers who might have the most to worry about â she won her seat by just 3.5 percentage points in 2015. Mark Eyking nearly lost SydneyâVictoria to the Conservatives in 2011, holding on by just 2.1 percentage points. In 2015, Bryan May of the Liberals took it back for the party by a margin of less than five percentage points. But a few ridings in Ontario that otherwise would have been high on the Conservativesâ list of soft targets might be harder for them to win than previously thought â thanks to the unpopularity of Doug Fordâs Progressive Conservative government. His performance will be a test of the Conservative strategy of banking on high-profile local candidates to make inroads in francophone, nationalist ridings like Trois-RiviÃ¨res â which voted for the CAQ in last yearâs provincial election, as well as Mario Dumontâs ADQ in its short-lived 2007 breakthrough. What does the future for the NDP under Jagmeet Singh look like? Once a Liberal stronghold, La Pointe-de-lâÃle hasnât voted for the party since 1980. With one-fourth of commuters in their cars for at least an hour a day, this is one riding where the debate over the carbon tax could prove decisive. Voter turnout was higher than average for byelections: 25.6 per cent in York Centre and 30.9 per cent in Toronto Centre. Following a strong second-place finish in a 2014 byelection, Celina Caesar-Chavannes won Whitby for the Liberals in 2015 after the seat had voted Conservative for nearly a decade. 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